Spatial Dynamics of AIDS Incidence in the Elderly in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1997-2011

The dynamics of the spread of the AIDS epidemic ranges according to the characteristics of each geographical region in different population groups. The aim of this study was to evaluate spatial and temporal trends of the AIDS epidemic among the elderly in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. 

A retrospective study using spatial analysis techniques was conducted among AIDS cases (≥ 60 years) diagnosed from 1997-2011. The Poisson regression model was used to assess the relationship between year of diagnosis and incidence of AIDS, adjusted by sex. 

The AIDS epidemic began in the south coast of the state and gradually reached neighboring cities. The highest rates were found in regions around Rio de Janeiro and Niterói cities. 

The highest smoothed rates of the period were observed in Niterói in 2002-2006: 11.87/100,000 (men) and 8,5/100,000 (women). AIDS incidence rates among the elderly have stabilized in recent decades. 

To prevent HIV from spreading further among the general population, greater attention should be given to the older population.

Below: Distribution of AIDS crude incidence rates per 100,000 in the elderly. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1997-2011

Below: Distribution of AIDS empirical Bayesian local rates per 100,000 in the elderly. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1997-2011

Below: Distribution of Local Moran Indexes (LISA) for AIDS incidence in the elderly. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1997-2011

Read more at: http://ht.ly/SyfVo

By: Rodrigues NC1, Almeida AS1, Braga JU1, O'Dwyer G1, Apratto Junior PC2, Daumas RP1, Lino VT1, Andrade MK1, Monteiro DL2, Barros MB1.

• 1Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sérgio Arouca, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, BR.
• 2Faculdade de Ciências Médicas, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, BR.

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