Capture-recapture (CRC) analysis is recommended for
estimating the prevalence of problem drug use or people who inject drugs
(PWID). We aim to demonstrate how naïve application of CRC can lead to highly
misleading results, and to suggest how the problems might be overcome.
We present a case study of estimating the prevalence of PWID
in Bristol, UK, applying CRC to lists in contact with three services. We
assess: (i) sensitivity of results to different versions of the dominant
(treatment) list: specifically, to inclusion of non-incident cases and of those
who were referred directly from one of the other services; (ii) the impact of
accounting for a novel covariate, housing instability; (iii) consistency of CRC
estimates with drug-related mortality data. We then formally incorporate the
drug-related mortality data and lower bounds for prevalence alongside the CRC,
in a single coherent model.
Five of eleven models fitted the full data equally well but
generated widely varying prevalence estimates, from 2740 (95% CI 2670, 2840) to
6890 (95% CI 3740, 17680). Results were highly sensitive to inclusion of
non-incident cases, demonstrating the presence of considerable heterogeneity,
and were sensitive to a lesser extent to inclusion of direct referrals. A
reduced dataset including only incident cases and excluding referrals could be
fitted by simpler models, and led to much greater consistency in estimates.
Accounting for housing stability improved model fit considerably more than did
the standard covariates of age and gender. External data provided validation of
results and aided model selection, generating a final estimate of the number of
PWID in Bristol in 2011 of 2770 (95% Cr-I 2570, 3110), or 0.9% (95% Cr-I 0.9,
1.0%) of the population aged 15-64 years.
Steps can be taken to reduce bias in capture-recapture
analysis, including consideration of data sources, reduction of lists to less
heterogeneous sub-samples, use of covariates, and formal incorporation of
external data.
Full article
at:
- 1School of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
- 2Institute of Brain, Behaviour & Mental Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
- 3Safer Bristol Partnership, Bristol City Council, Bristol, UK.
- 4Public Health Commissioning and Performance, Bristol City Council, Bristol, UK.
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