The sexual preference for
prepubertal children (pedophilia) is generally assumed to be a lifelong
condition. Müller et al. (2014) challenged the notion that pedophilia was
stable. Using data from phallometric testing, they found that almost half of 40
adult pedophilic men did not show a corresponding arousal pattern at retest.
Critics pointed out that regression to the mean and measurement error might
account for these results. Müller et al. contested these explanations.
The
present study shows that regression to the mean in combination with low
reliability does indeed provide an exhaustive explanation for the results.
Using a statistical model and an estimate of the retest correlation derived
from the data, the relative frequency of cases with an allegedly non-pedophilic
arousal pattern was shown to be consistent with chance expectation. A bootstrap
simulation showed that this outcome was to be expected under a wide range of
retest correlations.
A re-analysis of the original data from the study by
Müller et al. corroborated the assumption of considerable measurement error.
Therefore, the original data do not challenge the view that pedophilic sexual
preference is stable.
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By:
- 1Department for Forensic Psychiatry, University Hospital of Psychiatry Zurich (http://www.pukzh.ch/index.cfm), Lenggstrasse 31, P.O. Box 1931, 8032, Zurich, Switzerland. andreas.mokros@puk.zh.ch.
- 2Department for Forensic Psychiatry, University Hospital of Psychiatry Zurich, Lenggstrasse 31, P.O. Box 1931, 8032, Zurich, Switzerland.
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