Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Partner Notification for Reduction of HIV-1 Transmission and Related Costs among Men Who Have Sex with Men: A Mathematical Modeling Study

Earlier antiretroviral treatment initiation prevents new HIV infections. A key problem in HIV prevention and care is the high number of patients diagnosed late, as these undiagnosed patients can continue forward HIV transmission. We modeled the impact on the Dutch men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) HIV epidemic and cost-effectiveness of an existing partner notification process for earlier identification of HIV-infected individuals to reduce HIV transmission.

Reduction in new infections and cost-effectiveness ratios were obtained for the use of partner notification to identify 5% of all new diagnoses (Scenario 1) and 20% of all new diagnoses (Scenario 2), versus no partner notification. Costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) were assigned to each disease state and calculated over 5 year increments for a 20 year period.

Partner notification is predicted to avert 18–69 infections (interquartile range [IQR] 13–24; 51–93) over the course of 5 years countrywide to 221–830 (IQR 140–299; 530–1,127) over 20 years for Scenario 1 and 2 respectively. Partner notification was considered cost-effective in the short term, with increasing cost-effectiveness over time: from €41,476 -€41, 736 (IQR €40,529-€42,147; €40,791-€42,397) to €5,773 -€5,887 (€5,134-€7,196; €5,411-€6,552) per QALY gained over a 5 and 20 year period, respectively. The full monetary benefits of partner notification by preventing new HIV infections become more apparent over time.

Partner notification will not lead to the end of the HIV epidemic, but will prevent new infections and be increasingly cost-effectiveness over time.

Below:  Cumulative infections averted over 20 years. Scenario 1 in which 5% of patients are diagnosed through the online partner notification system (in red, median and interquartile range). Scenario 2 in which 20% of patients are diagnosed through the online partner notification system (in green, median and interquartile range). Graph A is when treatment is initiated at a CD4 cell count <500 cells/μl. Graph B is when treatment is initiated immediately.


Below:  Cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained over time in 5 year increments. Scenario 1 in which 5% of patients are diagnosed through partner notification (Graph A when treatment is started a CD4 cell count <500 cells/μl, Graph C when treatment is initiated immediately). Scenario 2 in which 20% of patients are diagnosed through partner notification. Graph A is when treatment is initiated at a CD4 cell count <500 cells/μl. Graph B is when treatment is initiated immediately (Graph B when treatment is started a CD4 cell count <500 cells/μl, Graph D when treatment is initiated immediately).


Below:  One-way sensitivity analyses of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of using the partner notification system over 5 years in Scenario 1 in which 5% of patients are diagnosed via the online partner notification system. Each horizontal bar represents the full range of cost-effectiveness ratios produced by varying a given model parameter across its plausible range. The vertical dotted line represents the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in Scenario 1 over 5 years in the primary analysis (€41,736 per QALY gained).



Full article at:  http://goo.gl/5u819F

By: 
Brooke E. Nichols, Eric C. M. van Gorp, Charles A. B. Boucher, David A. M. C. van de Vijver
Department of Viroscience, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands

Hannelore M. Götz
Department Infectious Disease Control, Public Health Service Rotterdam-Rijnmond, Rotterdam, the Netherlands

Hannelore M. Götz
Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands

Eric C. M. van Gorp, Annelies Verbon, Casper Rokx
Department of Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
 


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