Modelling & Estimation of HIV Prevalence & Number of People Living with HIV in India, 2010-2011

This paper provides HIV estimation methodology used in India and key HIV estimates for 2010-2011. We used a modified version of the Spectrum tool that included Estimation and Projection Package as part of its AIDS Impact Module. Inputs related to population size, age-specific pattern of fertility, sex-ratio at birth, age and sex-specific pattern of mortality, and volume and age-sex distribution of net migration were derived from census records, Sample Registration System and large-scale demographic health surveys. Epidemiological and programmatic data were derived from HIV sentinel surveillance, large-scale epidemiological surveys and the programme management information system. 

Estimated adult HIV prevalence retained a declining trend in India, following its peak in 2002 at a level of 0.41% (within bounds 0.35-0.47%). By 2010 and 2011, it levelled at estimates of 0.28% (0.24-0.34%) and 0.27% (0.22-0.33%), respectively. The estimated number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) reduced by 8% between 2007 and 2011. While children accounted for approximately 6.3% of total HIV infections in 2007, this proportion increased to about 7% in 2011. 

With changing priorities and epidemic patterns, the programme has to customise its strategies to effectively address the emerging vulnerabilities and adapt them to suit the requirements of different geographical regions.

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By: Raj Y1, Sahu D2, Pandey A2, Venkatesh S1, Reddy D3, Bakkali T4, Das C1, Singh KJ2, Kant S5, Bhattacharya M6, Stover J7, Jha UM1, Kumar P1, Mishra RM8,Chandra N4, Gulati BK2, Mathur S2, Joshi D9, Chavan L10.

• 1National AIDS Control Organization, New Delhi, India.
• 2National Institute of Medical Statistics, Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India.
• 3Department of Community Medicine, Institute of Medical Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India (Ex-Professor).
• 4UNAIDS, New Delhi, India.
• 5Department of Community Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India.
• 6Department of Community Health Administration, National Institute of Health & Family Welfare, New Delhi, India.
• 7Futures Institute, Washington DC, USA.
• 8UNICEF, Lucknow, India (Ex-Population Council Staff) rammanohar7@yahoo.co.in.
• 9CDC, New Delhi, India.
• 10WHO, New Delhi, India.  

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