HIV Insight: Application of Network Scale Up Method in the Estimation of Population Size for Men Who Have Sex with Men in Shanghai, China

Background

Men who have sex with men (MSM) are at high risk of HIV infection. For developing proper interventions, it is important to know the size of MSM population. However, size estimation of MSM populations is still a significant public health challenge due to high cost, hard to reach and stigma associated with the population.

Objectives

We aimed to estimate the social network size (c value) in general population and the size of MSM population in Shanghai, China by using the net work scale-up method.

Methods

A multistage random sampling was used to recruit participants aged from 18 to 60 years who had lived in Shanghai for at least 6 months. The “known population method” with adjustment of backward estimation and regression model was applied to estimate the c value. And the MSM population size was further estimated using an adjusted c value taking into account for the transmission effect through social respect level towards MSM.

Results

A total of 4017 participants were contacted for an interview, and 3907 participants met the inclusion criterion. The social network size (c value) of participants was 236 after adjustment. The estimated size of MSM was 36354 (95% CI: 28489–44219) for the male Shanghaies aged 18 to 60 years, and the proportion of MSM among the total male population aged 18 to 60 years in Shanghai was 0.28%.

Conclusions

We employed the network scale-up method and used a wide range of data sources to estimate the size of MSM population in Shanghai, which is useful for HIV prevention and intervention among the target population.

Below: Regression model with all the 22 subpopulations of known size