National statistics on the
incidence of rape play an important role in the work of policymakers and
academics. The Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) have provided some of the most
widely used and influential statistics on the incidence of rape across the
United States over the past 80 years.
The definition of rape used by UCR
changed in 2012 to include substantially more types of sexual assault. This
article draws on 20 years of data from the National Incident-Based Reporting
System to describe the impact this definitional change will have on estimates
of the incidence of rape and trends over time.
Drawing on time series as well
as panel random effects methodologies, we show that 40% of sexual assaults have
been excluded by the prior definition and that the magnitude of this error has
grown over time.
However, the overall trend in rape over time (year-to-year
change) was not substantially different when comparing events meeting the prior
definition and the subgroups of sexual assault that will now be counted.
Purchase full article at: http://goo.gl/0FrtKD
By:
- 1United States Marshals Service, Alexandria, VA, USA David.Bierie@usdoj.gov.
- 2University of California, Seal Beach, CA, USA.
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