Highlights
- Ecologic variables related to firearm-related injuries and crime were explored.
- The Illinois Trauma Registry and the Chicago Police Department's CLEAR were analyzed.
- Weekday, daily temperature, and rain are associated with firearm injuries and crime.
- Snow was not found to be associated with either firearm-related injuries or crime.
Firearm
violence is a major burden on Chicago with greater than 1500 gunshot injuries
occurring annually. Identifying ecologic variables related to the incidence of
firearm-related injuries and crime could prove useful for developing new
strategies for reducing gun-related injuries.
Methods
The
Illinois Trauma Registry (ITSR) and the Chicago Police Department's CLEAR
(Citizen Law Enforcement Analysis and Reporting) dataset were retrospectively
analyzed to investigate group-level factors potentially related to the
incidence of gun-related injuries and crime in Chicago from 1999 through 2012.
Multivariate linear regression was used to evaluate the effects of day of the
week, daily maximum temperature, precipitation, and snow on the incidence of
firearm-related injuries and crime.
Results
A
total of 18,655 gunshot wounds occurred during the study period (ITSR,
1999–2009). There were 156,866 acts of gun violence identified in the CLEAR
dataset (2002–2012). Day of the week, daily maximum temperature, and
precipitation were associated with differential risks of gun injury and violence.
Rain decreased firearm-related injuries by 9.80% [RR: 0.902, 95% CI:
0.854–0.950] and crime by 7.00% [RR: 0.930, 95% CI: 0.910–0.950]. Gunshot
wounds were 33% [RR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.29–1.37] more frequent on Fridays and
Saturdays and gun crime was 18% [RR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.16–1.20] more common on
these days. Snow was not associated with firearm-related injuries or crime.
Conclusions
Day
of the week, daily maximum temperature, and rain are associated with the
incidence of firearm-related injuries and crime. Understanding the effects of
these variables may allow for the development of predictive models and for
risk-adjusting injury and crime data.
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By: Kieltyka J1, Kucybala K2, Crandall M3.
- 1Department of Emergency Medicine, Northwestern University, United States. Electronic address: j-kieltyka@northwestern.edu.
- 2Northwestern University, Feinberg School of Medicine, United States.
- 3Department of Surgery, University of Florida - Jacksonville, United States.
- J Forensic Leg Med. 2016 Jan;37:87-90. doi: 10.1016/j.jflm.2015.11.003. Epub 2015 Nov 29.
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