The global burden of death
and disability attributable to illicit drug use, remains a significant threat
to public health for both developed and developing nations.
This paper presents
a new mathematical modeling framework to investigate the effects of illicit
drug use in the community. In our model the transmission process is captured as
a social “contact” process between the susceptible individuals and illicit drug
users. We conduct both epidemic and endemic analysis, with a focus on the
threshold dynamics characterized by the basic reproduction number.
Using our
model, we present illustrative numerical results with a case study in Cape
Town, Gauteng, Mpumalanga and Durban communities of South Africa. In addition,
the basic model is extended to incorporate time dependent intervention
strategies.
Below: Model system (2) fitted to data for individuals seeking treatment
due to illicit drug use. The blue circles indicate the actual data and the
solid line indicates the model fit to the data.
Below: Dynamics of system (C.3) showing the effects of optimal control strategies on eliminating or reducing illicit drug use in the community
Full article at: http://goo.gl/swAlzU
By:
University of
Zimbabwe, Department of Mathematics, P.O. Box MP 167, Harare, Zimbabwe
*Steady Mushayabasa: Email: moc.liamg@ayahsumydaets
More at: https://twitter.com/hiv insight
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