HIV Insight: Population Size Estimation of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Tbilisi, Georgia; Multiple Methods and Triangulation of Findings

INTRODUCTION:

An accurate estimation of the population size of men who have sex with men (MSM) is critical to the success of HIV program planning and to monitoring of the response to epidemic as a whole, but is quite often missing. In this study, our aim was to estimate the population size of MSM in Tbilisi, Georgia and compare it with other estimates in the region.

METHODS:

In the absence of a gold standard for estimating the population size of MSM, this study reports a range of methods, including network scale-up, mobile/web apps multiplier, service and unique object multiplier, network-based capture-recapture, Handcock RDS-based and Wisdom of Crowds methods. To apply all these methods, two surveys were conducted: first, a household survey among 1,015 adults from the general population, and second, a respondent driven sample of 210 MSM. We also conducted a literature review of MSM size estimation in Eastern European and Central Asian countries.

RESULTS:

The median population size of MSM generated from all previously mentioned methods was estimated to be 5,100 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3,243 ~ 9,088). This corresponds to 1.42% (95%CI: 0.9% ~ 2.53%) of the adult male population in Tbilisi.

CONCLUSION:

Our size estimates of the MSM population (1.42% (95%CI: 0.9% ~ 2.53%) of the adult male population in Tbilisi) fall within ranges reported in other Eastern European and Central Asian countries. These estimates can provide valuable information for country level HIV prevention program planning and evaluation. Furthermore, we believe, that our results will narrow the gap in data availability on the estimates of the population size of MSM in the region.

Below: MSM population size estimation study timeline

Different MSM population size estimates from various methods implemented in Tbilisi, Georgia 2014.

Various PSE methods	Point estimate		Lower Bound		Upper Bound
Various PSE methods	18–59y	Total	18–59y	Total	18–59y	Total
Network Scale-up	5816	6014	4972	5197	6859	7176
Multipliers
Grindr	9636		5701		31097
Mamba	5881		3372		22961
Hornet	22859		11362		22859
Gayromeo	3201		2029		7589
Service utilization	1980		1116		8759
Unique object	988		607		2648
Network based Capture-Recapture	4385		3115		5654
Handcock RDS-based method	2665		344		9417
Wisdom of the Crowds	15000		5000		30000
MSM size—Median of all above estimates	5100		3243		9088
MSM prevalence in adult population	1.42%		0.90%		2.53%

Full article at: http://goo.gl/m8oJ0Q

By: Sulaberidze L1, Mirzazadeh A2,3, Chikovani I1, Shengelia N1, Tsereteli N4, Gotsadze G1.

1Curatio International Foundation, Tbilisi, Georgia.
2Global Health Sciences, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America.
3Regional Knowledge Hub, and WHO Collaborating Centre for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
4Center for Information and Counseling on Reproductive Health-Tanadgoma, Tbilisi, Georgia.