PrEP Adherence Patterns Strongly Impact Individual HIV Risk & Observed Efficacy in Randomized Clinical Trials
BACKGROUND:
Randomized
controlled trials (RCT) suggest that the efficacy of tenofovir-based
pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) strongly depends on consistency of PrEP use. We
explore how patterns of pill-taking and waning of PrEP protection may affect
PrEP efficacy for HIV prevention.
METHODS:
A two-arm
RCT was simulated by mathematical models assuming that prescribed daily doses
were skipped periodically, randomly or in large blocks. Risk-driven adherence,
in which PrEP was taken when sex was expected, was also investigated. Three
temporal PrEP protection profiles were explored: long (5 days), intermediate (3
days) and short (24 hours). Modeling results were compared to the efficacy
observed in completed RCTs.
RESULTS:
Expected
PrEP efficacy was 60% with periodic, 50% with random and 34% with block
adherence when PrEP had a long protection profile and pills were taken only 50%
of the days. Risk-driven pill-taking resulted in 29% and 37% daily pills taken
and efficacy of 43% and 51% for long protection. High PrEP efficacy comparable
with that observed in Partners PrEP and CDC Botswana trials was simulated under
long protection, high overall adherence and limited block pill-taking; the
moderate efficacy observed in iPrEx and Bangkok trials was comparable with the
50% adherence scenarios under random pill-taking and long protection.
CONCLUSIONS:
Pill-taking
patterns may have a substantial impact on the protection provided by PrEP even
when the same numbers of pills are taken. When PrEP retains protection for
longer than a day, pill-taking patterns can explain a broad range of efficacies
observed in PrEP RCTs.
- 1Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- 2 Sainte-Justine Research Centre, University of Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- 3 Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.
- J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2016 Mar 16.
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