The 2010 US National HIV/AIDS Strategy (NHAS) set key targets for the reduction of HIV incidence (25 %) and the transmission rate (30 %) by 2015. We utilized published CDC data on HIV prevalence and mortality for 2007-2012, and literature-based incidence estimates for 2008-2012, along with mathematical modeling to evaluate whether the original NHAS incidence and transmission rate goals were achieved.
From 2010 to 2015, a decrease was estimated from
- about 37,366 to 33,218 (11.1 % net decrease) for HIV incidence,
- and from 3.16 to 2.61 (17.4 % net decrease) for the HIV transmission rate.
- estimated all-cause mortality decreased from 17,866 to 16,085,
- while HIV prevalence increased from 1,181,300 to 1,270,755 persons living with HIV.
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2Department of Health, Behavior, and Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
AIDS Behav. 2016 Apr 29. [Epub ahead of print]
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