Background
Many populations have
been exposed to environmental lead from paint, petrol, and mining and smelting
operations. Lead is toxic to humans and there is emerging evidence linking
childhood exposure with later life antisocial behaviors, including delinquency
and crime. This study tested the hypothesis that childhood lead exposure in
select Australian populations is related to subsequent aggressive criminal
behaviors.
Methods
We conducted regression
analyses at suburb, state and national levels using multiple analytic methods
and data sources. At the suburb-level, we examined assault rates as a function
of air lead concentrations 15–24 years earlier, reflecting the ubiquitous
age-related peak in criminal activity. Mixed model analyses were conducted with
and without socio-demographic covariates. The incidence of fraud was compared
for discriminant validity. State and national analyses were conducted for
convergent validity, utilizing deaths by assault as a function of petrol lead
emissions.
Results
Suburb-level mixed model
analyses showed air lead concentrations accounted for 29.8 % of the
variance in assault rates 21 years later, after adjusting for
socio-demographic covariates. State level analyses produced comparable results.
Lead petrol emissions in the two most populous states accounted for 34.6 and
32.6 % of the variance in death by assault rates 18 years later.
Conclusions
The strong positive
relationship between childhood lead exposure and subsequent rates of aggressive
crime has important implications for public health globally. Measures need to
be taken to ameliorate exposure to lead and other environmental contaminants
with known neurodevelopmental consequences.
Below: Scatterplot showing the relationships between lead in air concentrations and assault rates 21 years later for all six suburbs
Below: Scatterplot showing the relationship between lead petrol emissions and death by assault rates 18 years later for NSW
Below: Lead in air concentrations and assault rates for six suburbs, 1973–1999
Department of
Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Macquarie University
Energy and Environmental Contaminants Research Centre, Sydney, NSW Australia
Centre for
Emotional Health, Department of Psychology, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW
Australia
Macquarie Law
School, Faculty of Arts, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW Australia
Department of
Marketing and Management, Faculty of Business and Economics, Macquarie
University, Sydney, NSW Australia
Department of
Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, BC Canada
Mark Patrick Taylor, Email: ua.ude.qm@rolyat.kram.
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