Methamphetamine-related harms in Victoria have increased
recently in the context of stable or declining use prevalence. We determine how
changes in price and purity of methamphetamine compared to other drugs such as
heroin may, in part, explain these divergent patterns.
Detailed methamphetamine and heroin purchase price data from
2152 participant interviews from the Melbourne Injecting Drug User cohort study
were used to generate drug price series for the period January 2009-June 2013.
Data on drug purity from 8818 seizures made within Victoria were used to
generate drug purity series during the same period. Purity-adjusted price data
for methamphetamine and heroin were obtained for the period 2009-13 by
combining the two data sets.
- While the average purity of heroin seizures remained
consistent and low, the average purity of powder and of crystal methamphetamine
seizures increased from 12% to 37% and 21% to 64%, respectively.
- Crystal methamphetamine purity was bimodal, with observations generally less
than 20% or greater than 70%.
- The average unadjusted price per gram for heroin
decreased from $374 to $294, powder
methamphetamine did not change significantly from $252, and
crystal methamphetamine increased substantially from $464 in 2009 to $795 in 2011.
- This increase was offset by an
even greater increase in purity, meaning the average purity-adjusted price per
gram declined.
- Furthermore, pure prices of both methamphetamine forms were
similar, whereas their unadjusted prices were not. The pure price of heroin
fluctuated with no ongoing trends.
Decreases in methamphetamine purity-adjusted price along
with the bimodality of crystal methamphetamine purity may account for some of
the recent increase in methamphetamine-related harm. For a given amount spent,
methamphetamine purchase power has increased and the presence of extreme purity
variations may challenge individuals' control of consumption.
Below: Average price [Melbourne Injecting Drug User Cohort Study (MIX)] and purity-adjusted price [MIX prices adjusted by average Victoria Police Forensic Services Department (VPFSD) seizure purities] per gram of heroin and methamphetamine, January 2009 to July 2013
Below: Average purity of Victoria Police Forensic Services Department (VPFSD) seizures, January 2009 to July 2013
Below: Price series and 95% confidence intervals for 1 pure gram of heroin and methamphetamine based on regressions controlling for quantity discounts, Melbourne Injecting Drug User Cohort Study (MIX) prices adjusted by Victoria Police Forensic Services Department (VPFSD) seizure purities, January 2009 to July 2013. Crystal methamphetamine series has been slightly right-shifted for clarity
Below: Purity of Victoria Police Forensic Services Department (VPFSD) seizures, 2008–12
- 1Burnet Institute, Centre for Population Health, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.